竞争力、市场微观结构与证券交易所变革

纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克实施的重大并购行动标志着全球证券交易所新一轮并购浪潮的兴起,证券交易所之间的竞争再度趋于白热化.交易所之间的竞争已演变为市场微观结构的竞争.本文对纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克的交易成本进行了比较,无论是上市成本还是交易成本,新兴的纳斯达克都比传统的纽约证交所更胜一筹.因而本文认为有效降低交易成本应是提高交易所核心竞争力的关键所在,而改进交易机制、拓展产品服务以及调整组织架构,可以作为降低交易成本、提高交易所竞争力的具体竞争策略.     

中国股市趋向弱势有效之实证研究

本在对中国股票市场有效性的研究结果进行考察的基础上，运用有效市场理论分析了相关研究中存在的问题，最后得出中国股票市场正趋于弱势有效的结论。     

Spreads, Depths, and Quote Clustering on the NYSE and Nasdaq: Evidence after the 1997 Securities and Exchange Commission Rule Changes

This paper examines liquidity and quote clustering on the NYSE and Nasdaq using data after the two market reforms—the 1997 order–handling rule and minimum tick size changes. We find that Nasdaq–listed stocks exhibit wider spreads and smaller depths than NYSE–listed stocks and stocks with higher proportions of even–eighth and even–sixteenth quotes have wider quoted, effective, and realized spreads on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. This result differs from the findings by Bessembinder (1999, p. 404) that "trade execution costs on Nasdaq in late 1997 are no longer significantly explained by a tendency for liquidity providers to avoid odd–eighth quotations," and "odd–sixteenth avoidance has little relevance for explaining post–reform Nasdaq trading costs."     

我国的M1/M2(1978-2002):长期趋势、水平与周期波动

本对我国1978—2002年的M1／M2的长期趋势、水平和周期波动进行了研究，结果表明1978—1995年，中国的M1／M2呈急剧下降的态势，但是从1996至今则基本保持平稳。另外从国别比较来看，我国属于M1／M2比较高的国家(地区)之一，这表明我国的居民和企业由于支付制度、取款成本、规避税收等原因比美、日等国家的经济主体对M1的需求高很多。除开长期走势之外，中国的M1／M2还伴随着经济活动呈周期性的波动，实证分析结果表明1996年前的经济增长率是M1／M2周期波动的Granger原因，但1996年以后则必须由名义利率、通货膨胀率和股票市场交易量的变动才能说明M1／M2的波动。     

The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility

Stock prices reflect the value of anticipated future profits of companies. Since business cycle conditions impact the future profitability of firms, expectations about the business cycle will affect the current value of firms. This paper uses daily and monthly data from July 1986 to December 2000 to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of US technology stock price conditional volatility. Technology share prices are measured using the Pacific Stock Exchange Technology 100 Index. One of the novel features of this paper is to incorporate a link between technology stock price movements and oil price movements. The empirical results indicate that the conditional volatilities of oil prices, the term premium, and the consumer price index each have a significant impact on the conditional volatility of technology stock prices. Conditional volatilities calculated using daily stock return data display more persistence than conditional volatilities calculated using monthly data. These results further our understanding of the interaction between oil prices and technology share prices and should be of use to investors, hedgers, managers, and policymakers.     

Characteristics of Earnings-Leading Versus Price-Leading Firms

This study attempts to identify firm characteristics that explain the disparity between the information content of accounting earnings and stock prices. Granger's causality concept was employed to classify sample firms into four groups: price-leading firms, feedback-system firms, earnings-leading firms, and no-causation firms. The feedback-system firms were either combined with the no-causation firms or eliminated entirely to form three sample groups. The entire sample firms then were divided into two classes. The first is for estimation, and the second is for prediction. Results indicate that firm size, capital structure, R-square of regressing prices at time t against earnings at time t – 1, R-square of regressing earnings at time t against prices at time t – 1, and percentage of shares held by institutions are the significant explaining variables. The application of the coefficient estimates to the hold-out sample indicates that 76.2% of the firms can be correctly classified into the corresponding groups. These results were consistent with those from canonical discrimination and other multivariate statistical methods.     

Debt and Equity Characteristics of Mandatorily Redeemable Preferred Stock

Abstract. This study examines whether mandatorily redeemable preferred stock (MRPS) is priced more like debt or equity by (1) investigating its debt and equity characteristics and (2) specifying conditions under which one characteristic would dominate the other. Based on a sample of 113 nonconvertible MRPS issued during 1970 to 1990, our results are consistent with the view that MRPS has both debt and equity characteristics. The debt (equity) feature is more pronounced among nonutility (utility) issues. Within the utility group, we find high (low) rated MRPS issues to be more debt (equity) like. Our results appear to support current MRPS disclosure rules.     

Another look at long memory in common stock returns

We apply the modified rescaled range test to the return series of 1,952 common stocks. The results indicate that long memory is not a widespread characteristic of these stocks. But logit models of the event of a test rejection reveal that rejections are linked to firms with large risk-adjusted average returns. The maximal moment of a return distribution is also found to influence the event of a rejection, but not in a way suggestive of moment-condition failure. Evidence suggestive of survivorship bias is also uncovered. We conclude that there is some evidence consistent with persistent long memory in the returns of a small proportion of stocks.     

Dynamic analysis of stock return volatility in an integrated international capital market

This paper examines the dynamic behavior of the stock return volatility for Canada, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The evidence indicates that international stock return volatility is mainly influenced by the U.S. stock return volatility and the exchange rate volatility, supporting the international capital market integration hypothesis. There seems to be some correlation between stock return volatility and macroeconomic volatility, but the effect is relatively weaker. In addition to the economic fundamentals, the noise component is found to be time varying, confirming the AR(MA)CH specifications in the stock return models.     

从汇率制度视角看我国商业银行的流动性过剩

从汇率制度角度透视我国当前的商业银行流动性过剩现象,目的在于为经济金融的进一步开放提供理论依据和决策参考。本文通过对“三元悖论”理论的解读和1998～2006年各季度数据的实证检验,揭示了我国商业银行流动性过剩与汇率制度之间存在密切相关性,即在我国现行的汇率制度下,外汇储备的不断增加直接导致了商业银行存差的扩大,造成金融系统乃至整个社会的流动性过剩。基于上述研究,作者提出了如下相关建议:完善我国汇率形成的市场机制,培育相对均衡汇率;深化我国外汇管理体制改革,有序开放资本市场;汇率制度改革要与其他政策改革协调配合。